Author: Professor Abdugani Mamadazimov, CSI “Zerkalo”
For the SEnECA blog
More than 2,150 years ago, when the “founding father” of the Great Silk Road, the envoy of the Chinese emperor Zhang Qian, reached the final destination of his journey in northern Bactria (modern southern Tajikistan), he was surprised to discover bamboo and other goods from China being sold in local markets—having arrived there through India. This discovery by the famous Chinese traveler suggests that ancient India maintained a trade route not only with southern China but also with Bactria, the largest region of ancient Transoxiana (Tajik: Varorud). In other words, before the opening of the Great Silk Road, there already existed an ancient trade route “from Bactria to India.”
Today, as the world’s superpowers launch large-scale initiatives to revive the Great Silk Road—the Chinese megaproject “Belt and Road Initiative” and the American “New Silk Road” project—India, the homeland of chess, is also beginning its own serious game to establish a trade route into Inner Asia. Due to fierce competition with Pakistan, India cannot enter Central Asia directly through Afghanistan and is therefore forced to make a “knight’s move.”
The logic of India’s “knight’s move” strategy involves establishing a direct maritime connection between the port of Mumbai and Iran’s Chabahar port, and from there, transporting goods by rail (currently under accelerated construction) into Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics, and further into Russia and Europe—bypassing Pakistan by sea.
India’s advance into Inner Asia is not only economic but also includes a humanitarian and peacebuilding dimension:
- Peacebuilding factor.
The first meeting of the foreign ministers of India and the five Central Asian countries, held at the invitation of Afghanistan’s foreign minister in the “capital of Central Asia”—the city of Samarkand—in the “5+1+1” format (January 12, 2019), discussed not only the creation of trans-Afghan transit routes but also intra-Afghan reconciliation. This meeting contributed to the activation of various platforms aimed at resolving this long-standing regional conflict.
It is well known that neither Soviet nor NATO attempts to pacify Afghanistan have produced lasting results, and the country remains unstable, causing concern among its neighbors. It is encouraging that India and Uzbekistan have begun to join efforts to intensify the Afghan peace process. In our view, the above-mentioned Samarkand ministerial meeting between India’s Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and her Central Asian counterparts became a catalyst for renewed negotiations in Doha and Moscow.
Two factors—the gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and Iran’s expected accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)—may contribute to the success of India’s mediation efforts. New Delhi, with its friendly relations with Afghanistan and extensive experience in non-violent conflict resolution, has strong potential to play an active peacebuilding role.
After forty years of war and failed external interventions by world powers, the military approach to resolving the Afghan conflict has proven ineffective and destructive. The joint India–Central Asia effort to achieve peace and national reconciliation in Afghanistan, based on the principle of non-interference in sovereign affairs, reflects not only the aspirations of the Afghan people but also the modern global demand for humanity and compassion—the “Panchsheel” principle.
A resolution of the intra-Afghan crisis would also help reduce international terrorism and religious extremism in the region, as a consensus among Afghan political and military forces on peace and stability would limit the operational space of extremist groups. Restricted funding and arms supply from abroad would eventually lead to their marginalization and decline. - Engaging Iran in regional processes.
By entering Central Asia through Iran, India can actively involve Tehran in trade and economic relations across the region and the wider Inner Asia. Iran’s engagement in Central Asian processes will, in turn, accelerate its accession to the SCO. Once Iran joins the SCO and U.S. (NATO) troops leave Afghanistan, the result would be a relatively “peaceful environment” around Afghanistan. The further stabilization of the Afghan conflict will largely depend on this influential organization. - India’s democratic experience as a model for Central Asia.
India is the most democratic country within the SCO. Before India joined, the organization was often perceived globally as a “club of autocracies,” which weakened its image. India’s participation could strengthen its international standing. Moreover, India’s experience of transitioning from a traditional, non-democratic society to one embracing modern democratic and civic values could serve as a valuable example for post-Soviet Central Asian countries—often described as a “major oasis of autocracy.” - India as a model of the “digital economy.”
India’s success in building a modern digital economy can serve as an example for Central Asian countries implementing national programs and strategies to modernize their economies. While many leading SCO members use IT technologies for total surveillance and control over citizens—thus extending authoritarianism into the digital realm—India’s democratic approach to digital transformation may gain international recognition and respect. - Creating an optimal geostrategic quartet.
India’s gradual and peaceful (economic) entry into post-Soviet Central Asia could also help ease tensions in the strategic triangle “Russia–China–USA,” transforming it into a stable quartet “Russia–China–India–USA.” Intense competition among these superpowers—sometimes manifesting through hybrid warfare—poses the risk of turning our region into one of the arenas of this geopolitical confrontation.
India, the birthplace of chess, is now making its own “knight’s move,” reshaping the strategic configuration of Central Asia.
More than 2,000 years ago, during a time of great turmoil, the peace-oriented religion of Buddhism was born in India and spread across the world through Central Asia. Today, in an age of growing violence, perhaps it is time for India to make its second great global entry—this time inspired by the high “Spirit of Gandhi,” the spirit of non-violence.
Official project website: https://www.seneca-eu.net
This project is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 770256.
